The US midterm elections were held last week, and the Democrats flipped both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The win has been described as a ‘blue tsunami’, and even a generational change. It could have major implications for the remaining 2 years of US President Donald Trump’s term, and it could influence what happens in the 2028 US Presidential election. So in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll get you across:

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Remind me what the midterms are again?
They’re the elections that happen halfway through a presidency to elect the seats of Congress - all of the seats in the House of Reps go up for election, as do about a third in the Senate, but the President is not up for election. Just imagine we had a scenario where you just elected your representatives in the House and the Senate here in Australia, but you weren't electing the PM.

So how were things looking before the election?
The Republican Party (that’s Donald Trump’s party) held majorities in both houses of Congress. It only held a thin majority in both, but it meant the party was able to pass legislation relatively easily. The Democrats needed a net gain of 3 seats in the House of Representatives (so retain/replace all their seats plus get an additional 3) and a net gain of 4 to win control of the Senate. 

And they did that?
In a big way. They took over 40 seats (and counting) from the Republicans in the House of Reps, and they flipped 7 seats in the Senate (races in Alaska and Mississippi are still being counted). That first part, especially, is where this talk about a wipeout and tsunami is coming from - it was a huge win for them there. So, as we mentioned, both Houses are set to be controlled by the Democrats as of 3 January next year. 

And how many people turned out to vote?
Like a lot of the world, the US doesn’t have compulsory voting, so voter turnout is a major factor. Early numbers show more than 124 million Americans cast ballots in these midterm elections - that’s just under half of eligible voters and a record-high raw total of votes ever recorded in a US midterm election cycle. 

What else are people saying about it?
US Vice President JD Vance said something people don’t usually say about their own side. He reckons that it wasn’t just that the Democrats had a bigger voter turnout, but that the main problem for Republicans was that many people who voted for Trump in 2024 voted Democrat in this election.

Why does he reckon people changed their vote?
He pointed to polling that laid out 4 reasons why people might have changed their vote this time. The first was to end the war with Iran, the second was cost of living and inflation pressures, third was that Americans want the government to put them first, and on a similar line of thought, they want to change the country’s relationship with Israel. 

Got it. And what are the states people are talking about?
You might have heard a bit about Texas. A 37yo Democrat named James Talarico won the Senate race there - the first in 38 years. There’s also a new Democrat governor-elect named Gina Hinojosa. She’ll be the first Democrat Governor there in 32 years after defeating the incumbent, Greg Abbott, who is quite a big figure in the Republican Party. 

Why else is Texas a big deal?
Broadly speaking, both James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa fit the narrative that voters are a bit fatigued by the Trump establishment - they’re less interested in voting for people perceived to be part of that establishment.

What were the big issues there?
It’s a state that's hugely affected by fuel prices, so the cost of living and the war in Iran are really biting. Migration policies were a big sticking point too. Texas is on the border with Mexico, and there's a big Latino population. 

Any wins for the Republican Party?
If you were reading about this over the week, you would have thought there wasn't much good news for the Republican Party, but Florida - where Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate is - stayed with the Republicans. A Republican named Byron Donalds won the governorship and is going to be the first black Governor of Florida. 

So what comes next in Trump’s Presidency?
Well, it’ll make it a lot harder for him to pass legislation the way he’s been doing, but he still holds veto power over any laws the Democrats try to pass. There’s been speculation that he’ll be doing a lot of that, but he said on election night that he’s open to working with the Democrats. We’ll have to wait and see whether that actually happens.  

What about the 2028 Presidential election?
This is Trump’s second term, so he can’t run again. It had seemed like JD Vance was the frontrunner to be Trump's successor as the Republican candidate going into that race. But now, his connection to Trump is being seen as less of a positive, and the party might move on to a different chapter. 

And what about the Democrats?
That race is being called wide open at the moment, but one name being thrown around is Jon Ossoff, who retained the Senate seat in Georgia and extended his margin. He's been the Senator since 2021, and fun fact: his mum was born and raised in Sydney before moving to the US in her early 20s. He said recently that he’s not interested in running for the White House, but stranger things have happened than a semi-Aussie US President… 

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Reading: This piece from the Guardian about what the Democrats can actually do once they have control of Congress in January.

Reading: This piece from The Conversation about what the change could mean for the future of the Iran war.

Watching: This clip of POLITICO reporter Dasha Burns (successfully) cold-calling President Trump on election night and his thoughts on what happened and what’s next.